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Your February 2024 Guide

One month down, 11 to go in the year.

February is the weak link in the “best six months” that runs from October to April.

It ranks 11 of 12 for both the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000.

Expect weakness in the month ahead, especially near the President’s Day holiday.

This year, we welcome February with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones near all-time highs.

Markets have shrugged off the year’s weak start and pushed higher. Of the three start-of-the-year signals we track, two failed to deliver gains. 

  • The “Santa Claus” rally failed
  • The “Early Warning” was triggered

However, the January barometer was green. As January goes, so goes the year—83% of the time anyway.

Had the other two signals been green, that figure would jump to 90%.

The current readout, red, red, green, has only occurred three times since 1950. In each of those three years, the market rallied.

  • Average annual gain +20% 
  • Average return during the last 11 months, +15%

Technicals

Over the past month…

Our outlook remains bullish.

We continue to hold half of our seasonal swing positions.

Your Calendar

For the notable happenings of the month, CLICK HERE to download your free calendar now.

Earning season continues in Feb, use Earnings Whisper for weekly earnings report outlooks.