Your April 2024 Guide

March delivered a fifth consecutive month of gains. As icing on the cake, the S&P 500 closed the month at a record high.

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  • The S&P 500’s average return in March is +1.1%
  • In 2024, it returned +3.1%

The S&P 500 posted gains on 50% of the trading days in March.

  • The month started weak 
  • Bottomed on the Ides (the 15th) 
  • Rallied into the end of the month

Heading into April is a very bullish market. 

Key developments from March…

  • The labor market remains strong
  • Inflation is lingering
  • The Fed’s latest dot plot showed it still expects to cut rates three times this year.
  • The market has turned truly risk-on…
    • Bitcoin^ made new all-time highs and peaked near $74,000
    • Meme stocks RDDT and DJT surged on their debuts

What to Expect in the Month Ahead

Image from Unsplash

Average return for April by index (election year).

  • Dow Jones +1.9% (+1.5%)
  • Nasdaq +1.4% (+0.9%)
  • S&P 500 +1.5% (+1.3%)
  • Russell 2000 +1.4% (+1.4%)

In regards to timing, April is traditionally stronger after the tax filing deadline on April 15th.

We’re holding our swings and some stocks. We’ll be looking to book some profits later in the month.


Over the past month…

SPY Daily Candles w/10-Day RSI – Chart via thinkorswim

Our outlook remains bullish.

Your Calendar

For the notable happenings of the month, CLICK HERE to download your free calendar now.

Earning season Kicks off on the 12th … use Earnings Whisper for weekly earnings report outlooks.

^Open Position

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