March delivered a fifth consecutive month of gains. As icing on the cake, the S&P 500 closed the month at a record high.
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- The S&P 500’s average return in March is +1.1%
- In 2024, it returned +3.1%
The S&P 500 posted gains on 50% of the trading days in March.
- The month started weak
- Bottomed on the Ides (the 15th)
- Rallied into the end of the month
Heading into April is a very bullish market.
Key developments from March…
- The labor market remains strong
- Inflation is lingering
- The Fed’s latest dot plot showed it still expects to cut rates three times this year.
- The market has turned truly risk-on…
- Bitcoin^ made new all-time highs and peaked near $74,000
- Meme stocks RDDT and DJT surged on their debuts
What to Expect in the Month Ahead
Average return for April by index (election year).
- Dow Jones +1.9% (+1.5%)
- Nasdaq +1.4% (+0.9%)
- S&P 500 +1.5% (+1.3%)
- Russell 2000 +1.4% (+1.4%)
In regards to timing, April is traditionally stronger after the tax filing deadline on April 15th.
We’re holding our swings and some stocks. We’ll be looking to book some profits later in the month.
Technicals
Over the past month…
- The VIX is hovering near 3-year lows–Bullish
- RSI levels are all neutral
- The put-to-call ratio has been flirting with oversold conditions—Bullish
Our outlook remains bullish.
Your Calendar
For the notable happenings of the month, CLICK HERE to download your free calendar now.
Earning season Kicks off on the 12th … use Earnings Whisper for weekly earnings report outlooks.
^Open Position