Bitcoin is in its 6th bull market.
I’ve written about the previous five bull runs and subsequent crashes here.
And through some simple calculations, I nailed the bottom of the 2022 crash.
- Between August 2022 and January 2023
- Target range $5,000 to $22,000.
- November 2022
Since bottoming, the price has risen more than 200%, so it’s safe to say we’re in the next bull market.
Where’s The Top?
Now that we have an actual bottom, not just a projection, I was able to narrow the next projections for the top of the current bull run.
And here it is…
Bitcoin is projected to break out above $70,000 to new all-time highs by January 2025.
It is projected to peak near $850,000 by the end of 2025.
Now, that assessment has a few caveats.
The historical record paints a wide range of possible outcomes.
- Bear case is $240,000
- Bull case is $1.8 million
You see, Bitcoin’s history is storied. And the peaks and bottoms vary greatly both in magnitude and timing.
The catalysts that accompany the bulls and bears are never quite the same. But follow a general narrative…
- Bull market—Adoption grow—ETF Formation
- Bear market—Scams and frauds destroy confidence—FTX Collapse
The window for the next possible peak is already open. The time between separate bulls market’s all-time highs range from 7 to 38 months.
Bitcoin’s 5th bull market peaked in November 2021.
- New all-time highs took 36 months after the peak of the 4th
- The 5th peaked 11 months after that
The 4th bull market took 38 months to break out and 11 months after that to peak.
The previous two bull markets had the longest gaps between milestones than the first three. Which leads us to conclude…
The time between new all-time highs and the peak of the bull market is also growing longer.
Recent history leads us to expect the break out and subsequent peak to come later rather than sooner.
Given the limited amount of data available, there is no reason to believe the current bull market won’t produce a piece of data that falls outside the established range … If a new record is set, expect a longer timeframe record.
The Best Time to Take Profits?
Each of the last four bull markets peaked after the price of Bitcoin exceeded 2X the 50-day moving average.
So, we’ll use that bit of knowledge as a guide.
While I’ll never liquidate my entire position, history tells us there are times to be bullish and times to be bearish.
Your trades are your decision.
If you want to start investing in Bitcoin, my trusted partner is Swan Bitcoin.
Use this link and your first $10 is on me. https://www.swanbitcoin.com/tradingforkeeps/
Tick tock next block. Happy Trading 🙂