9/30/22 Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful — Your October Outlook


The Bank of England market-rescue rally was short-lived. On Thursday, Wednesday’s gains were erased, and then some.

The S&P 500 closed at a new low for the year … as all four indexes posted sharp declines.

  • Dow Jones -1.5%
  • Nasdaq -2.8%
  • S&P 500 -2.1%
  • Russell 2000 -2.4%

Sector Round-Up

Of the 11 sectors, 10 closed in the red. The top performer…

  • Energy (XLE) ended unchanged, +/- 0.0%

At the bottom…

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -3.5%
  • Utilities (XLU) -4.0%

Running Up That Hill

Dow Jones component Nike (NKE) lost 3.4% during yesterday’s trading session and another 10% after hours.

Image from Shutterstock
  • The athletic apparel company beat earning expectations
  • But slowing sales, high inventory, and supply chain issues weighed heavy on the stock
  • Nike has given about $20 billion in market cap over the last 24 hours.


Markets are pointing higher.

SPY Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

As the chart shows, the S&P 500 has been reacting as expected to overbought and oversold RSI conditions this year.

And this morning, the S&P 500 is at a critical support level too.

All our other signals agree. The market is at a technical turning point. 


October is a month of fear that needs to be unmasked.

When investors think of October, the crash of 1929 & 1987 may come to mind.

  • Major declines during October also occurred in 1978, 1979, 1989, & 1997
  • The worst signal day for the Dow was in October 2008, with a decline of 18%

But when you peel back the curtain a bit further, you’ll find October is a reliable bear killer. 

  • Since WWII, 12 bear markets have met their fate in October
  • 66% of those were in mid-term years.

1946, 1957, 1960,
1962, 1966, 1974,
1987, 1990, 1998,
2001, 2002, 2011

October, statistically speaking, is the…

  • Best Dow Month
  • Best S&P 500 month
  • 2nd best Nasdaq month

This October marks the beginning of the “sweet spot” in the 4-year election cycle.

Image from StockTradersAlmanac.com

We are at the blue arrow. And we have been buying.

Here are the important dates to note in the month ahead:

  • 10/12 FOMC meeting minutes released
  • 10/13 CPI inflation data
  • 10/14 Earnings season’s unofficial kick-off. Big banks MS, WFC, JPM, C report.
  • 10/21 Options Expiration
  • 10/27 Q3 GDP
  • 10/28 Univ of Mich consumer sentiment


*Low Float
^Open Position

*BEAT on watch
HROW support at $10
SAVA resistance at $50, support at $40
EVTL support at $9
DCPH support at $17
RVNC support at $24
FREY support at $14
HLIT support at $12
CANO support at $8, resistance at $9

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