Markets opened green on Wednesdays. But after a brief rally, they took a dive.
The S&P 500 was down -0.8% at 2 pm. And the outlook was bleak.
Then, the tides turned. Markets rallied into the close, and the indexes squeezed out a mostly positive close…
- Dow Jones -0.2%
- Nasdaq +0.2%
- S&P 500 +0.0%
- Russell 2000 +1.0%
The late-day rally happened despite seemingly disastrous economic headwinds…
- Goldman Sachs (GS) put the odds of the government shutdown at 90%
- Oil prices hit a fresh high for the year
- Bond rates continue to climb
- The dollar is growing stronger
Sector Round Up
At the top…
- Energy (XLE) +2.5%
- Industrials (XLI) +0.7%
- Communications (XLC) +0.3%
At the bottom…
- Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.8%
- Real Estate (XLRE) -0.9%
- Utilities (XLU) -1.9%
Today, let’s look back one year.
The chart below is a historical record of exactly what happened on September 30, 2022…
After bottoming out at the end of September, the market retested those lows in mid-October.
Then it went on a tear. The S&P 500 gained 32% over the next ten months, peaking in July 2023.
Today, the setup looks eerily similar.
And our signals are united … further downside is limited.
Your latest readout…
- The VIX is still holding below 20
- RSI levels are split, the Dow and the S&P 500 remain oversold
- The put-to-call ratio is extremely oversold
We’re buying the dip.
This morning at 8:30, the final GDP estimate for Q2 drops.
As does the latest data on unemployment filings.
If you see volatility at 8:30, be sure to check both releases.
*SHOT support at $1.40, resistance at $1.55
*HRTG support at $6
*ACIC support at $8, resistance at $9
LFMD support at $5, resistance at $5.50
GIII support at $24
METC support at $10, resistance at $11
IMVT on watch
APLT support at $2, resistance at $2.80
WSM support at $145
MLKN on watch
NN support at $5 / resistance at $5.50
TNGX support at $11
VIST support at $28
SCS support at $11
Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million
TALK support at $1.80, resistance at $2
TAL support at $2
ROIV support at $12