9/21/23 The “Dot Plot” and A Time to Buy


On Wednesday, markets opened on a positive note as investors awaited the latest Fed decision.

  • At 2 PM, the Fed did as expected and kept rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5%
  • As Powell addressed reporters, the market dropped
Charts from Finviz

Headlines blamed the selling on the Fed’s latest “Dot Plot.”

  • The plot suggested another hike is likely this year
  • And deep rate cuts are unlikely next year

The indexes settled notably red and at their session lows…

  • Dow Jones -0.2%
  • Nasdaq -1.5% 
  • S&P 500 -0.9%
  • Russell 2000 -0.9%

Sector Round Up

Despite the selling, 4 of the 11 sectors posted gains.

At the top…

  • Real Estate (XLRE) +0.2%
  • Consumer Stpales (XLP) +0.1%

At the bottom…

  • Materials (XLB) -1.1%
  • Communications (XLC) -1.4%
  • Technology (XLK) -1.6%


Markets are looking more and more oversold.

The S&P 500 is nearing oversold conditions this morning…

SPY Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

History tells us that oversold conditions are never maintained. And strong rallies often follow.

Your latest readout…

Markets are setting up perfectly for their traditional autumn bottom.


Fall is traditionally a weak time for stocks.

October has a long history of creating market bottoms and killing bear markets.

We’ll look to establish our seasonal swing positions in the coming weeks. Ideally, markets will reach extreme oversold conditions for us to buy into.

For now, we wait.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*SHOT support at $1.40, resistance at $1.55
CABA support at $16
GIII support at $24
APLT support at $2
NN support at $5
MAPS support at $1.50, resistance at $1.75
TNGX support at $8, resistance at $9
SCS support at $9

Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million

TALK support at $1

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