8/31/23 WARNING: Here Comes September


Wednesday was another day of gains on Wall Street.

That’s four consecutive days of gains.

SPY Daily Candle – Chart by thinkorswim

The indexes closed the day modestly higher.

  • Dow Jones +0.1%
  • Nasdaq +0.5% 
  • S&P 500 +0.4%
  • Russell 2000 +0.4%

Sector Round Up

9 of the 11 sectors were green at the end of Wednesday’s session. The gains were tame, and no sector really stood out.

At the top…

  • Technology (XLK) +0.8%
  • Energy (XLE) +0.5%
  • Industrials (XLI) +0.5%

The losers…

  • Healthcare (XLV) -0.1%
  • Utilities (XLU) -0.5%


The last time the VIX maintained levels this low was during the 10+ year bull market that preceded the COVID crash of 2020.

VIX Daily Candle – Chart by thinkorswim

When this gauge is below 16, it tells us there is no fear in the market, and the path of least resistance is higher.

Your latest readout…

While our read of the technicals is bullish, the month of September is not…


Today is the final trading day of August.

Looking ahead…

September is the worst month for stocks. All four major indexes rank the month as 12 out of 12.

  • The average return for the S&P 500 is -0.5%
  • During pre-election years, it’s -0.8% 

September is the final month of Q3. It is also the start of many businesses’ fiscal year. Expect professional investors to dump poor-performing stock after the return from Labor Day.

Here are the key dates in the month ahead…

  • Jobs Report – Friday, Sept 1
  • Labor Day Holiday, markets closed – Monday, Sept 4
  • CPI inflation – Wednesday, Sept 13
  • PPI inflation – Thursday, Sept 14
  • Triple Witching – Friday, Sept 15
  • FOMC interest rate decision – Wednesday, Sept 20
  • Final Q2 GDP Estimate – Thursday, Sept 28
  • PCE inflation – Friday, Sept 29
  • End of Q3 – Friday Sept 29


*Low Float
^Open Position

*HOLO support at $8
*TSAT support at $18
GRPN support at $12
PFIE support at $2.40
REKR support at $3.50, resistance at $4
ESTE support at $19
MAPS support at $1.40
TIGR support at $4.50

Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million

MREO support at $1.40
TSHA on watch
ICCT on watch
PGEN support at $1.75

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