fbpx

8/23/22 Divided like an APE

News:

Yesterday, there wasn’t a buyer to be found.

Markets fell throughout the day and closed near their lows.

Each major index declined 2% or more.

Image of person stand near the edge of a cliff
Photo by Leio McLaren on Unsplash

Headlines blamed Powell’s upcoming speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.

Ultimately a reason is hard to find. 

But we noticed that the Friday’s and Monday’s selling could bear some significance. We’ll address this more in the “Technicals” and “Timing” sections below.

Sector Roundup

All 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the day in the red.

The riskiest sectors finished at the bottom…

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -2.8%
  • Technology (XLK) -2.8%
  • Communication (XLC) -2.9%

Dividend of the APEs

First, let’s make sure we understand how a dividend works…

When a $100 stock issues a $1 dividend. 

  • Each share is repriced to $99. 
  • And $1 cash is added to each investor’s brokerage account.
Picture of AMC Theater enterance
Image by Noam Galai from Getty Images

On the surface, it looks like AMC Entertainment (AMC^) declined 42% yesterday … A net change of -$7.56.

But that’s not exactly what happened…

  • AMC issued a dividend in the form of a share that trades under the ticker APE.
  • These shares were priced at $6.95 and closed at $6.
  • So the net change for investors was only -$1.56 or -8.7%

It’s worth noting that shares of APE began trading much higher than the price AMC’s SEC filing originally indicated.

But at this point, it’s all market function.

At writing, we maintain a position in both AMC & APE.

Technicals:

In Japan (where candlestick charting originated), they call these “windows.” In the states, we often refer to these as “gaps.”

Call it what you will but know this…

Once a window is open, it’s hard to close.

Yesterday’s gap-down and continuation selloff was a bearish signal

SPY Chart with Gaps/Windows marked
SPY Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

We are in a wait-and-see mode right now. But our bullish thesis didn’t hold up.

The other signals we’re tracking…

The timing of the back-to-back selloffs bears significance too…

Timing:

On Fridays, traders reduce exposure when they’re not feeling warm and fuzzy. The inability to exit position over the weekend can cause lost sleep.

On Mondays, traders have had time to reflect and digest recent happenings.

  • A down Friday followed by a down Monday is a warning that markets are turning.

With any signal, it’s not 100% certain. 

But paired with the gap-down and close near the lows of the day … There are a lot of signals pointing lower.

  • It’s still summer
  • It’s still Q3
  • We are still in the midst of the weakest part of the four-year cycle.

Manage your risk. It’s important to survive until Q4. We still expect a major rally to close out the year.

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

*FPAYresistance at $3
*APRN resistance at $7
BCAB support at $9
AXSM is on watch
COGT support at $15
SIGA support at $22
RYTM support at $23
CSIQ support at $42
INFI support at $1.20
CPRX support at $13.50
PRVA support at $40
^GEO support at $7.50

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.