8/12/22 Bolstering the Case … Inflation has Peaked


Markets closed yesterday mixed, with slightly more stocks advancing (54%) v declining (41%).

  • The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 close in the green.
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended in the red.
chart with arrows pointing up and down
Image from Adobe Stock

The News was mixed too…

Producer Price Indexes (PPI) unexpectedly fell.  The report revealed a 0.5% decline in prices month-over-month.

The report bolsters the case that inflation has peaked.

On the other hand, new unemployment filings remain elevated.

This is the third week in a row that initial filings have topped 250,000.  The number is notable but not alarming.

Sector Roundup

The sectors were divided as well. At the top…

  • Energy (XLE) rose 3.5% as the price of crude crept back up. Crude is trading near $95 per barrel this morning.
  • Financials (XLF) gained more than 1% on the improving inflation outlook.

At the bottom…

  • Consumer discretionary (XLY) -0.7% 
  • Healthcare (XLV) -0.5%


The S&P 500’s chart looks incredibly strong.

SPY chart
SPY Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The only concerning signal at the moment is the overbought RSI levels.

We’re expecting a cooldown … sooner or later. 

But that doesn’t mean the market will fall. Sideways is a direction too.

Futures are higher this morning as the markets look for their fourth consecutive green week.


This morning at 10 am, the latest consumer sentiment survey from the Univ of Mich will drop.

Don’t expect any fireworks, but the report often has notable findings … We’ll let you know what we discover on Monday…

Next week is options expiration week.

  • Historically the August expiration week starts strong and ends weak.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*CASI resistance at $4
AEHR on watch
SUNW resistance at $4
TPIC on watch
COGT support at $12
SIGA support at $22
AERI support at $10
KOD support at $10
RYTM support at $15
TCDA support at $12
RAD support at $10
VUZI support at $9
RVNC support at $20.50
MRSN support at $6
BLU support at $11
CPRX on watch

Secondary watchlist … +100m float

STKL on watch
DVAX resistance at $17.50
ARRY on watch
BFLY on watch
ABCL support at $12
BNGO support at $3
^GERN support at $2

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