News:
Yesterday the Nasdaq Composite:
- Rallied 2.9%
- Closed 20.7% above its June low
- Officially entered a bull market
The Russell 2000 also jumped 2.9%…
- It’s up 19.3% from its lows
- Nearing an end to its bear market.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones gained 2.1% and 1.6%, respectively. Both remain in bear markets … for now.
Inflation Has Peaked
Headline inflation, per the CPI summary, rose 8.5% year-over-year and 0.0% month-over-month.
- That’s better than last month’s reading of 9.1%.
- Expectations were closer to 9%.
Bear in mind this is a single data point…
But it aligns directly with our expectations and that of JP Morgan (JMP).
Here’s their graph. We shared it with you last month too.
Note the headline … “inflation peaked in June.”
Look to The Fed
The better-than-expected inflation reading paves the way for the Fed to begin easing its aggressive rate hikes.
Markets are pricing in a 0.5% increase next month.
The Fed hiked by 0.75% at the last few FOMC meetings.
Technicals:
April 4th, 2022.
That’s the last time the VIX closed below 20.
Futures are on the rise this morning as RSI levels point to overbought conditions.
- The market needs to cool off.
- But with so many bears fighting the trend, the market could squeeze higher first.
Our outlook remains bullish.
It’s a bull market, you know.
Timing:
We are still in the middle of earnings season … keep your eye out for surprises.
The big news items we’re anticipating…
- Friday 8/12, Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment
- Wednesday 8/17, June FOMC minutes release
- Thursday 8/25, Q2 GDP final number
- Wednesday 9/21, FOMC meeting conclusion with rate hike announcement
Watchlist:
*Low Float
^Open Position
*FAZE support at $15
AEHR on watch
SUNW resistance at $4
TPIC on watch
COGT support at $12
SIGA support at $20-22
AERI support at $10
ALDX on watch
KOD support at $10
RYTM on watch
TCDA support at $12
VUZI support at $9
RVNC support at $21.50
MRSN support at $6
CYTK support at $50
BLU support at $11
CPRX on watch
Secondary watchlist … +100m float
DVAX resistance at $17.50
ARRY on watch
BFLY support at $6
ABCL support at $12
BNGO support at $2.75
^GERN support at $2