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7/15/22 Morgan, Pins, and The Mighty Dollar

News:

Yesterday markets opened deep in the red for a second day. But once again—closed near flat.

The sectors were divided, only 3 of 11 ended in the green. 

  • Technology was the leader with a gain of about 1%
  • Materials, Energy, & Financials were down nearly 2% each

Earnings Season Begins


Image from Shutterstock

The day’s most notable story came from JP Morgan Chase (JPM), which fell 3.5% after reporting dismal earnings. 

  • Profits are down 28% from a year ago … but higher than Q1
  • The bank is suspending stock buybacks

While talking to reporters, the CFO downplayed the odds of a recession … Saying, “There is essentially no evidence of actual weakness.”

Notable News Index


Photo by Jeremy Bishop from Pexels

The dollar continues to show strength against the euro. At writing, the two currencies are equal. 

  • 1 dollar equals 1 euro for the first time in 20 years.  
  • Your take-home: The market sees a higher risk of a recession in the EU than in the States.

New weekly unemployment filings reached an 8-month high

  • The labor market remains strong but is showing signs of cooling.

Shares of Pinterest (PINS) rose as much as 20% after hours when the Wall Street Journal reported that “activist investor Elliott Management” has acquired a 9% stake in the company.

Bitcoin^ is back above $20,000 this morning.

Technicals:

Today I want to show you a 3-year VIX chart…


VIX Weekly Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The range is narrowing and appears to be fading lower.

Despite the bear market, rate hikes, and recession fears, the VIX has remained in check.

A lower VIX favors the bulls.

Your take-home … The market is forward-looking. A recession is already priced in … if we avoid it, expect a rally.

Timing:

At 10 am this morning, the Univ of Mich will release the latest consumer sentiment survey.

Today is also July’s options expiration … which could bring some fireworks near the close.

The next major date on our calendar is July 28th:

  • Q2 GDP data release in the premarket
  • The Fed will announce its latest rate hike in the afternoon

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

*HTGM has support at $1.60
*FNKO has support at $22
*BRPM has resistance at $10
CLNN has support at $4
^CBIO has resistance at $1.80
TH has support at $11
WVE has support at $4
SIGA has resistance at $15
CELH has support at $70
ALDX has support at $5
VERU has resistance at $16
GOSS has support at $10
SGEN has resistance at $180
TCRT has resistance at $1.50

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