7/14/23 Leading Indicator Says Inflation is Over


The PPI report, which is considered a leading indicator, showed prices rose just 0.1% over the past year.

That’s the smallest year-over-year rise in three years.

Chart by BLS

Inflation for wholesale prices has retreated from record-high levels. The expectation is that consumer prices will follow.

On the heels of the report, markets climbed for a third day. The indexes all posted gains…

  • Dow Jones +0.1%
  • Nasdaq +1.6% 
  • S&P 500 +0.9%
  • Russell 2000 +0.9%

Sector Round Up

The buying was widespread. 10 of the 11 sectors closed Thursday’s session with gains. 

The risk-on sectors were grouped at the top…

  • Communications (XLC) +1.5%
  • Technology (XLK) +1.3%
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.9%

The lone loser…

  • Energy (XLE) -0.4%

Crypto Craze

A New York judge ruled that Ripple’s XRP token is “not necessarily a security on its face.”

This ruling means that some cryptocurrencies can be regulated as commodities. This is bullish because it provides some certainty to the crypto and financials industry.

From Getty Images
  • The Price of XRP rocketed 80% higher in the aftermath
  • Bitcoin^ jumped to $31,600, a 52-week high

Stocks related to crypto went fully parabolic in the wake of the ruling. Most crypto prices are rising too.


Markets have reached unsustainable high levels.

RSI levels for 3 of the 4 major indexes are now overbought. The Nasdaq is the most severe…

QQQ Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

Overbought conditions have never been maintained long-term.

Expect a drawdown in the near future.

Here’s your latest readout…


Markets tend to bottom in October and peak in July.

For that reason, we are not buying this rally. Instead, we have been taking profits from our risk-on positions that are surging.


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