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6/30/23 The Complete July Outlook

News:

Stocks generally rose after getting a surprise GDP revision for Q1. 

  • The growth rate was revised upward from +1.3% to +2.0%
Chart from the BEA

The major indexes ended Thursday’s session mostly higher…

  • Dow Jones +0.8%
  • Nasdaq -0.0% 
  • S&P 500 +0.5%
  • Russell 2000 +1.3% 

Sector Round Up

Thursday was a mostly bullish day as 8 of the 11 sectors ended the session with gains

At the top…

  • Financials (XLF) +1.7%
  • Materials (XLB) +1.3%
  • Energy (XLE) +1.2%

At the bottom…

  • Utilities (XLU) +/- 0.0%
  • Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.1%
  • Communications (XLC) -0.5%

Technicals: 

Everything we’re seeing still looks bullish…

SPY Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

The chart shows old resistance is acting as support. Predictability favors the bulls.

Although that may be about to change…

Here’s your latest readout…

Timing:

As we say goodbye to Q2, we are looking ahead to the month of July.

Here’s everything you need to know about the month ahead…

For being part of the summer trading months, July isn’t too bad. 

  • Of the 12 months, historically it’s the 4th best for the Dow Jones and S&P 500.
  • For risk-on stocks, it’s not as bright….
    • Nasdaq – ranks 9th
    • Russell 2000 — ranks 10th
  • Each season typically contains a rally…
    • The summer rally tends to peak in July

Our advice … avoid establishing new long positions in the month ahead. For positions you are looking to close, sell into rallies.

Here are the keys dates to mark on your July calendar…

  • July 3 – Half day of trading
  • July 4 – Markets closed for independence day
  • July 5 – FOMC minute release
  • July 7 – Job report
  • July 12 – CPI headline inflation
  • July 13 – PPI inflation
  • July 21 – Option Expiration
  • July 26 – FOMC interest rate decision
  • July 27 – Q2 GDP advance estimate
  • July 28 – PCE inflation data

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

*NREV support at $8
GASS support at $4
TALS support at $3
^CIFR resistance at $3
CLBT support at $6.50
OSTK support at $27
EOSE on watch
BTBT support at $4, resistance at $4.50
ARLO support at $10
PDCO support at $31 / $33
MRNS support at $10, resistance at $11

Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million

RDFN on watch
MARA support at $12 / $13
ATOS support at $1
ENVX support at $16
GOL
support at $5
^IONQ support at $11.50
ABCM resistance at $24
OPEN on watch

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