5/6/22 The Great Bull Trap! And What 1970 Tells Us…

News:

Wednesday’s post-FOMC rally was wiped out in the first hour of trading. Yesterday the markets resumed their freefall, the Nasdaq was the worst performer declining 5%.

Earning losers got hit the hardest. Most notably, Wayfair (W) lost 26% and Etsy (ETSY) fell 17%.

Technicals:

The put-to-call ratio is still oversold. That’s day 11 now…

The VIX is high, approaching resistance in the mid-30s again…

And the Nasdaq has broken all support…

QQQ Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

I see little hope for a serious rally in the near future. The market is extremely bearish…

Timing:

Today’s market does have a historical sister. 1970 was a midterm year, inflation was running hot and the energy market was uncertain, to say the least…

As the chart shows we are following that summer trend very closely.

In 1970 the market bottomed in late May and closed the year near flat.

I’m waiting for signs that the bottom is in.

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

^*RCMT has support at $18.50, resistance at $20
^CYN has resistance at $4
ICPT is on watch
TMDX has support at $28
CVI has support at $29
LPG has support at $16
HDSN is on watch
SGML has support at $16, resistance at $18
TWI has support at $15.50
DK has support at $26
^REI has resistance at $5
ARLP has support at $18.50
TTI has support at $4.40
CC is on watch
^DVN has support at $65
EDU has support at $12

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