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5/4/23 The Fed Is Done! Maybe

News:

Markets opened green on Wednesday ahead of the latest FOMC decision.

At 2 PM, the market cheered the latest announcement

  • The Fed increases its benchmark interest rate by +0.25% to 5.00% – 5.25%
  • Language about future increases was removed from the official statement
  • In prepared remarks, Fed Chair Powell said the rate may be high enough

After Powell left the stage, the markets got a rug pull.

Image from CoinDesk

The indexes went from green to red and closed at their session lows…

  • Dow Jones -0.8%
  • Nasdaq -0.5% 
  • S&P 500 -0.7%
  • Russell 2000 +0.4%

Note the Russell 2000 held onto some of its gains.

Under the surface, the bulls showed some fight… 42% of stocks finished the day higher, and 54% were lower at the closing bell.

Sector Round Up

All 11 sectors ended Wednesday lower.

At the top…

  • Healthcare (XLV) -0.1%
  • Utilities (LXU) -0.3%
  • Industrials (XLI) -0.4%

At the bottom…

  • Materials (XLB) -1.1%
  • Financials (XLF) -1.1%
  • Energy (XLE) -1.9%

Banking Blunders

The banking crisis has yet to be resolved.

Photo by The Wall Street Journal

The latest victim is PacWest Bancorp (PACW) which fell 60% in after-hours trading following an “update” issue via press release.

According to the update…

  • The bank is considering “asset sales”
  • It’s evaluating “all options to maximize shareholder value”

This morning PACW shares are down just 40% from yesterday’s close. And 85% from itd pre-crisis levels.

Technicals: 

The VIX moved into no-man’s-land during yesterday’s session.

Between 18 and 20 is essentially neutral for the fear gauge right now…

VIX Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

Keep watch on the VIX during today’s session.

Right now, the market is trying to make sense of a lot of information. Just remember the close is far more important than the open.

Until then, here’s our latest reading…

Timing:

Tomorrow is the latest jobs report drops at 8:30.

Until then, keep an ear to the ground as earnings reports continue to pour in.

We’ve added more stocks to our watchlist today than at any point in recent history.

Watchlist:

^Open Position

ELEV support at $3
BZH support at $18
QTRX support at $15
PLX support at $2.80
APLT support at $1.60, resistance at $2
COCO support at $22
AVDL on watch
PRTA support at $65
SMCI support at $120
SKYW on watch
AQST support at $1.60
LVO support at $1.40
SA resistance at $14
^TDUP support at $2.40
^CBAY support at $10

Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million

TIO support at $2.40
MDGX support at $4.50
TGTX on watch
BLDR on watch
RIOT support at $10, resistance at $12
HIMS support at $10.50, resistance at $12
IMGN on watch
UBER support at $36

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