News:
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve officials gathered in Washington to decide what to do with interest rates.
This FOMC meeting is the second since the banking crisis began.
The indexes opened red and plummeted through the morning. After lunchtime, markets clawed back some of the losses but still finished the day sharply lower…
- Dow Jones -1.1%
- Nasdaq -1.1%
- S&P 500 -1.2%
- Russell 2000 +2.1%
Sector Round Up
The sectors had a single green spot … 10 of 11 ended the day lower.
The lone winner…
- Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.1%
At the bottom…
- Real Estate (XLRE) -1.7%
- Communications (XLC) -1.9%
- Financials (XLF) -2.3%
- Energy (XLE) -4.4%
Notable Names
Hindenburg Research launched an attack on Icahn Enterprises (IEP), the conglomerate holding company controlled by legendary investor Carl Icahn.
Hindenburg called the firm’s share price “inflated” and suggested the market value is 75% higher than it should be.
- Hindenburg’s reasoning is based on comparisons to similar funds
- The research firm disclosed a short position in the report
- Shares of IEP fell about 20%—to their lowest level since the COVID crash of March 2020
The stock pays an $8 annual dividend which is 20% of the stock’s value at writing.
There’s an old saying, If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. We are steering clear—No trade.
Technicals:
The S&P 500 held a critical level during yesterday’s selling…
While there are signs of a double top forming, the fact that the SPY held $410 is encouraging for the bulls.
Today’s price action will be driven by news.
We’ll be watching to see where prices end up.
Until then, here’s our latest reading…
- The VIX closed below 18, a sign that real fear is absent from the market
- RSI levels are neutral
- The Put-to-Call Ratio is oversold
Timing:
At 2 PM today, the Fed will end its FOMC meeting with a new interest rate announcement.
90% of forecasters are calling for a +0.25% increase. We believe that increase has been priced in.
At 2:30, Fed Chair Powell will take the stage and address the press. Markets will hang on every word he says, so expect a bumpy ride.
Two things to remember today…
- Never trust the first move
- The market’s reaction is more important than the announcement itself
Watchlist:
^Open Position
URGN support at $13
ELEV support at $3
BZH support at $18
APLT support at $1.60, resistance at $2
AVDL on watch
CRS support at $51
SKYW on watch
LVO support at $1.40
SA resistance at $14
^TDUP support at $2.40
^CBAY support at $10
Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million
TIO on watch
TGTX on watch
RIOT support at $10, resistance at $12
HIMS support at $10.50, resistance at $12
GGG on watch
NYCB support at $10
UBER support at $36