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5/12/22 The Knife Calmly Falls…

News:

Yesterday was another dismal day on Wall Street. The Nasdaq gave up over 3% again.

CPI inflation data came in hot. On average prices are 8.3% higher than this time a year ago.

While the headlines talked up the latest data there was nothing new to price in. Inflation is high, the market wasn’t surprised to learn this…

The energy sector is beginning to show some strength again as investors seek out safe bets.

A risky bet, Bitcoin,^ fell below its 2021 lows…

Overseas Russia is being poked in the eye. Reuters reported that Finland and Sweden are planning to apply for NATO membership soon.

One headline that did catch my attention this morning was “Casinos Just Had Their Best Month Ever.”

So even though the markets are suffering the gamblers are still gambling … just not in the stock market.

Technicals:

In a rare showing, the VIX actually declined with the markets yesterday. Typically a rising VIX aids the bears.

The VIX is a volatility index. It measures the panic in the markets. And while the panic levels are still high (20 is about the average), they didn’t accelerate.

The markets are calmly accepting the bear market and not fighting it much.

Resistance for the VIX remains at 35…


VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The put-to-call ratio and RSI levels are telling the markets are oversold. 

But with the VIX acting strange I’m not ready to call the bottom just yet.

Timing:

CPI data is behind us.

This morning at 8:30 the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) data will be released. Expectations are that inflation is still high…

Watchlist:

^Open Position

TRMD has support at $11
HDSN
has support at $8
LPG is on watch
^REI has support at $4
BORR has resistance at $5
GO has resistance at $36
HRB is on watch
UNM has support at $34

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