4/8/22 Wait for The Close & The Crypto Bull

News:

Yesterday markets struggled in the early hours as the Dow Jones sank below the previous day’s low.

The Fed’s minutes weighed heavy on the market as the financial media stoked fear. But as I’ve said the whole time it’s all priced in. There was little new information in the minutes.

As the close drew near markets rallied.

I always trust the close more than the open. Don’t forget the old saying, “Amateurs open the market but the professionals close it.” As you can see from yesterday’s chart…

DIA 5-Minute Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

In the crypto world, Bitcoin^ has fallen below critical support at $45,000 while Dogecoin^ is up about 28% in the past month.

Crypto markets remain volatile as Miami revealed a “Crypto Bull” complete with laser eyes to signal its desire to play a critical role in the future of crypto and financial markets.

By The New York Times

At the unveiling, the Mayor said, “The Miami Bull is a physical representation of our city’s commitment to … [the] adoption of cryptocurrencies.”

Technicals:

Watch the VIX. The volatility index usually provides a strong sense of who is really in charge, the bulls or the bears.

A low VIX, near 20 or lower, signals the bulls have the upper hand. As the VIX moves away from 20 the bears gain the upper hand.

VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The two long upper shadows and it’s failure to breach the previous day’s highs gave me the confidence I needed to hold through yesterday’s drawdown.

The indexes all have some overhead resistance to deal with going forward. But the signals all look bullish to me.

Timing:

It’s still April and stocks are still looking bullish.

With all the Fed’s news now released and digested the markets are clear to resume the upward trend.

The next FOMC meeting is in the first week of May.

April has three more weeks of trading to go. I’m eyeing SPXL to capture the momentum. The risk level will be this week’s lows.

Next week is a short week. The market will be closed for Good Friday on the 15th. Monday I’ll discuss what traders should watch in the week ahead.

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

^*SBFM is on watch
*IPI has support at $94
^*THCA has resistance at $14
^*SGLY is on watch
TRVI has support at $2.5
^NRGV has support at $18
^ASRT has resistance at $3.50
SGML has support at $17
ZETA has support at $13
^LXU has support at $25
SAVE has resistance at $28
BRCC has resistance at $29
TWTR is on watch
HPQ has resistance at $40

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