4/3/23 Welcome to Q2


The market ended Q1 of 2023 on a high note.

On Friday, all the indexes finished the day sharply higher…

  • Dow Jones +1.3%
  • Nasdaq +1.7%
  • S&P 500 +1.4%
  • Russell 2000 +1.9%

Cooling inflation data led the positive day. 

The Fed-preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, showed inflation rose 5.0% year-over-year. It marked a slowdown from 5.3% in the previous two months. 

Image by MyCustomer

The Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey revealed a mixed bag.

  • Overall sentiment fell for the first time in 4 months
  • The banking crisis was the primary driver of the decline
  • Inflation expectations receded to the lowest levels since April 2021—before inflation ran wild

Sector Round Up

Each of the 11 Sectors ended Friday higher.

At the top…

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.9%
  • Real Estate (XLRE) +1.3%
  • Communications (XLC) +1.9%

At the bottom…

  • Consumer Staples (XLP) +0.8%
  • Utilities (XLU) +0.7%
  • Energy (XLE) +0.7%

With riskier stocks at the top and safer stocks at the bottom, the market appears to be growing more bullish by the day.


Compare the VIX to pre-crisis levels…

VIX Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

While the banking crisis did strike fear into the market, it dissipated almost as fast as it arrived.

With fear removed from the market, it’s free to move in the direction of least resistance.

Our reading suggests the most likely path is higher.


It’s a short week for the market.

Friday markets will be closed for Good Friday.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*BANL on watch
ARCT support at $23
SCYX resistance at $3
TERN support at $11
INZY on watch
ALDX support at $9
NAAS on watch
DTC support at $7
VKTX support at $12
ACCD support at $14
GATO support at $5.50
^EMAN support $2
^SQSP on watch
DNMR support at $3
^AI support at $30
^IOT resistance at $18
KC on watch
AUPH support at $10
RELY support at $16, resistance at $17
RIOT support at $8, resistance at $10
^IONQ support at $6
OSCR support at $6
ARDX on watch

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