4/12/23 For Inflation’s Sake


Markets failed to pick a direction on Tuesday.

It was a mixed day with a mixed close.

Despite reports of a record number of short positions ahead of today’s CPI report, the price action was essentially muted.

Chart by Bloomberg

At the close, two of the four major indexes were trading in the green…

  • Dow Jones +0.3%
  • Nasdaq -0.4%
  • S&P 500 -0.0%
  • Russell 2000 +0.8%

Small caps noticeably outperformed. The Russell 2000 barely dipped in the red during Monday’s session.

While the indexes failed to unite, under the surface, it was clear the bulls were in charge. 67% of stocks gained during Tuesday’s session, while 29% declined.

Sector Round Up

The sectors painted a similar story, 9 of 11 ended the day higher.

At the top…

  • Energy (XLE) +0.9%
  • Financials (XLF) +0.9%
  • Materials (XLB) +0.8%

The losers were, notably, “risk-on” sectors…

  • Communications (XLC) -0.3%
  • Technology (XLK) -1.0%

It was another low-volatility day, as no sector ended more than 1% away from its previous close. That’s two days in a row, if you’re counting.


Without volatility to drive selling, the market will rise over time … At least, that’s the story history tells us.

Volatility comes from fear, and The VIX usually does an excellent job of showing just how much fear is in the market…

VIX Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

The chart above shows little to no fear in the current market.

Given today’s news could change that.

For now, we’re maintaining a bullish outlook.


This morning at 8:30, the highly-anticipated March CPI report will reveal the latest inflation data.

The market is sure to react strongly… 

In which direction is anyone’s guess?

Watch the market’s reaction, not the news itself. And never trust the first move … The algos are trying to steal your money.


^Open Position
*Low Float

*ELOX resistance at $10
*SFWL support at $4.50
ARCT support at $24, resistance at $27
CTHR resistance at $1.2
INZY support at $5, resistance at $6
ALDX support at $10
DTC support at $8
LVO resistance at $1.40
VKTX support at $16, resistance at $18
EOSE support at $2.75
^EMAN support at $2.30
^SQSP support at $32
DNMR resistance at $4

Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million

^IOT support at $18, resistance at $20
XERS support at $2
TGTX support at $20
RIOT on watch
^IONQ support at $6, resistance at $7
OSCR resistance at $7, support at $6
ARDX support at $4.20
NGD support at $1.20

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