3/31/23 Your April Outlook—No Fools Here


There’s an old saying in the market, “amateurs open, pros close.”

Thursday marked a rare day in a volatile market—both sides agreed. Markets opened higher, dipped mid-day, and finished near their highs/opens.

Of the indexes, the big three ended the day green…

  • Dow Jones +0.4%
  • Nasdaq +0.7%
  • S&P 500 +0.6%
  • Russell 2000 -0.2%

Notably, small caps finished lower. 

The rally was not especially broad. 63% of stocks finished high, while 34% finished lower—The bulls won, but they didn’t dominate.

Sector Round Up

10 of 11 Sectors ended Thursday higher.

At the top, a repeat from yesterday…

  • Real Estate (XLRE) +1.3%
  • Technology (XLK) +1.2%
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.9%

The only loser…

  • Financials (XLF) -0.2%


It’s back to the bulls.

Look at the cart below and tell me that it wasn’t a bear trap…

SPY Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

The S&P 500 reclaimed its 50-day moving average (the blue line), gapped higher, and held its gains.

Plus, the 200-day moving average turned upward (green arrow).

Our calls are showing a gain while our short is showing a loss. It’s time to follow the money—A close above 400 today is a buy.


Here is your complete April outlook…

April is the best month for the Dow Jones, with an average gain of 1.9%. The other top indexes regularly show up to the April rally…

  • Nasdaq, #4, +1.5%
  • S&P 500, #2, +1.5%
  • Russell 2000, #3, +1.5%

Average gains in pre-election years are significantly higher for every index.

The season favors the bulls.

Here are the important dates to add to your calendars…

  • April 7 — Markets closed for Good Friday
  • April 7 — March Jobs report
  • April 12 — CPI Inflation Data
  • April 12 — FOMC minutes released
  • April 13 — PPI Inflation Data
  • April 14 — Earnings Season begins with big banks reporting
  • April 21 — Options Expiration
  • April 25 — Semiconductors Billings
  • April 27 — Q1 GDP, First Estimate 


*Low Float
^Open Position

*BANL on watch
*BMEA on watch
CMPR support at $40
^AEHR support at $35
JFIN support at $3.60
PYXS on watch
SCYX resistance at $3
TERN support at $11
INZY support at $4
ALDX support at $9
NAAS on watch
DTC resistance at $7
VKTX support at $12
ACCD resistance at $14, support at $13
GATO resistance at $3
^EMAN support $2
^SQSP on watch
^IOT resistance at $18
KC on watch
AUPH on watch
RELY support at $16
RIOT support at $8, resistance at $10
ARDX on watch
OSCR support at $6

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