There’s an old saying in the market, “amateurs open, pros close.”
Thursday marked a rare day in a volatile market—both sides agreed. Markets opened higher, dipped mid-day, and finished near their highs/opens.
Of the indexes, the big three ended the day green…
- Dow Jones +0.4%
- Nasdaq +0.7%
- S&P 500 +0.6%
- Russell 2000 -0.2%
Notably, small caps finished lower.
The rally was not especially broad. 63% of stocks finished high, while 34% finished lower—The bulls won, but they didn’t dominate.
Sector Round Up
10 of 11 Sectors ended Thursday higher.
At the top, a repeat from yesterday…
- Real Estate (XLRE) +1.3%
- Technology (XLK) +1.2%
- Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.9%
The only loser…
- Financials (XLF) -0.2%
It’s back to the bulls.
Look at the cart below and tell me that it wasn’t a bear trap…
The S&P 500 reclaimed its 50-day moving average (the blue line), gapped higher, and held its gains.
Plus, the 200-day moving average turned upward (green arrow).
Our calls are showing a gain while our short is showing a loss. It’s time to follow the money—A close above 400 today is a buy.
- The VIX closed lower than the day before SVB showed signs of failure
- RSI levels are all neutral
- The Put-to-Call Ratio held neutral
Here is your complete April outlook…
April is the best month for the Dow Jones, with an average gain of 1.9%. The other top indexes regularly show up to the April rally…
- Nasdaq, #4, +1.5%
- S&P 500, #2, +1.5%
- Russell 2000, #3, +1.5%
Average gains in pre-election years are significantly higher for every index.
The season favors the bulls.
Here are the important dates to add to your calendars…
- April 7 — Markets closed for Good Friday
- April 7 — March Jobs report
- April 12 — CPI Inflation Data
- April 12 — FOMC minutes released
- April 13 — PPI Inflation Data
- April 14 — Earnings Season begins with big banks reporting
- April 21 — Options Expiration
- April 25 — Semiconductors Billings
- April 27 — Q1 GDP, First Estimate
*BANL on watch
*BMEA on watch
CMPR support at $40
^AEHR support at $35
JFIN support at $3.60
PYXS on watch
SCYX resistance at $3
TERN support at $11
INZY support at $4
ALDX support at $9
NAAS on watch
DTC resistance at $7
VKTX support at $12
ACCD resistance at $14, support at $13
GATO resistance at $3
^EMAN support $2
^SQSP on watch
^IOT resistance at $18
KC on watch
AUPH on watch
RELY support at $16
RIOT support at $8, resistance at $10
ARDX on watch
OSCR support at $6