3/22/23 It’s Fed Day, Risk-Off Rally?


Markets opened to positive news on Tuesday.

According to the National Assoc. of Realtors, “Existing-Home Sales Surged 14.5% in February, Ending 12-Month Streak of Declines.”

Image from Zillow

Throughout the day, stocks pushed higher and showed bullish tendencies. 75% of all listed stocks closed higher.

And each of the major indexes closed solidly in the green…

  • Dow Jones +1.0%
  • Nasdaq +1.6%
  • S&P 500 +1.3%
  • Russell 2000 +1.9%

As far as the banking crisis goes… 

Headlines touted First Republic’s (FRC) +30% rally after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “outflows have stabilized” and “our banking system is resilient.”

However, the chart for FRC tells a different story…

FRC Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

FRC stock is down nearly 90% over the past month, even after yesterday’s surge.

Sector Round Up

Tuesday’s rally did include the vast majority of stocks, but not every sector participated. Of the 11 sectors, 8 end the day higher.

At the top…

  • Energy (XLE) +3.5%
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +2.8%
  • Financials (XLF) +2.5%

The losers…

  • Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.1%
  • Real Estate (XLRE) -0.6%
  • Utilities (XLU) -2.0%

A few notes from this reading… 

  • Only one of the “risk-on” sectors ended in the top three
  • Financial stocks did not lead the charge
  • Real Estate finished near the bottom despite the positive news in the sector

Meme Stock Madness

Meme stock, Gamestop (GME^), climbed about +50% in after-hours trading on the heels of a surprise profit.


The markets are at a critical point. 

The S&P 500 closed at converging resistance levels ahead of The Fed’s big announcement…

SPY Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

Markets have surged higher in recent days.

But today’s announcement will likely break a trend. Which trend? … We can’t say.

Our latest reading gives the bulls a slight advantage…


At 2 PM today, The Fed will announce its new interest rate. 

A hike of 0.25% is the most likely outcome. However, the case has been made for both a pause and a 0.5% increase.

Fed Chair Powell will take the stage at 2:30.

Expect a volatile day.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*CRBP support at $6
*BLPH on watch
ELEV support at $2
^AEHR resistance at $37
ARAV support at $2.20
^CIFR support at $2, resistance at $2.50
MGNX support at $7
PRQR support at $3.50
DTC support at $6
CDTX support at $1.80, resistance at $2
EMAN on watch
^INDI support at $10
^SQSP support at $28
NVTS support at $7
IOT support at $18
RELY support at $15, resistance at $16
RIOT support at $8
ONON on watch

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