3/18/22 China Doesn’t Need Russia

News:

In early February China and Russia released a joint statement declaring there were “no limits” to their cooperation.

Russia delayed the Ukrainian invasion until after the Olympics at China’s request. Demonstrating strong cooperation between the two nations, and is a sign that China has no issue with the war.

Less than a week ago Russia requested military assistance from China. Which as far as we know has NOT been provided.

Today President Biden is scheduled to speak with Chinese President Xi. Their first official communication since the war began.

While the media and possibly the market will hang on every word we hear, China joining Russia in the assault on Ukraine is unlikely.

Photo by Paulo Marcelo Martins from Pexels

If China was looking to do the country any favors it could have helped to stabilize the Ruble as it collapsed, but chose not to.

China has a long history. It built a wall to keep it separate from its neighbor’s affairs.

While it’s unlikely to impose sanctions on Russia, China does not appear willing to pick a fight that could bring about world war 3.

Technicals:

The top three indexes all broke their local downtrends. The Russell 2000’s chart is the only one still trading below recent resistance. See below…

IWM Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

A small-cap rally could provide confirmation of the bullish turn.

But all my other readings are pointing bullish. So I’m starting to shift back to risk on.

I’ve been very selective in opening just a few positions as the market comes back to life. My positions are noted below.

Timing:

Markets performed wonderfully on St Patty’s day. +1.2% across the board.

Today is the year’s first triple witching. Watch for increased volume and volatility, especially during the final hour of trading.

Futures have gone from red to green and green to red. At writing, they are still in the red.

I suspect this has more to do with the expiring contracts than the China meeting.

Stay safe!

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

^*SGLY is on watch
^HDSN has support at $6
IMXI has support at $19
EIGR has resistance at $8
VYGR has support at $6.50
TMST has support at $20
FLR has resistance at $29
^NLSN has resistance at $24

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