3/16/22 The Market Loves Powell


Tomorrow will mark three weeks since the Russian assault on Ukraine began. We’ve learned that war is unpredictable.

Today Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address U.S. Congress. I don’t expect his speech will move the market.

Oil is still trading below $100 after China imposed a new lockdown on about 37 million citizens. The markets are in a wait-and-see mode on this front.

All eyes will be on the Fed this afternoon as Powell is scheduled to begin his press conference at 2 p.m.

Markets rallied yesterday ahead of Powell’s speech and futures are up again this morning. I’ve said it before … the market loves Powell.


The SPY is in a short-term downtrend and it could break the trend this morning.

SPY 4-hour Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

Investors continue to bet against the rally as the put-to-call ratio is overextended on puts once again.

The VIX is retreating from the 30s this morning. It may have already broken its trend.

Signs of a bull rally are coming together.


The past few FOMC meeting have been bullish. In the week or two that followed the SPY traded higher than before the meeting on a consistent basis.

There may be a dip-buying opportunity in the coming days. But I’m only going to take a gimme, no chasing.

St Patty’s day is tomorrow. And it’s typically green. In fact, the average gain for the SPY on 3/17 is +0.37%, making it the 7th most profitable day of the year on average.


*Low Float
^Open Position

^*SGLY has resistance at $8
HDSN has resistance at $6
VYGR key level at $6.50
AMPH has resistance at $35
IXHL is on watch
KALA is on watch
FLR has support at $28
NLSN is on watch

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