3/16/22 The Market Loves Powell

News:

Tomorrow will mark three weeks since the Russian assault on Ukraine began. We’ve learned that war is unpredictable.

Today Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address U.S. Congress. I don’t expect his speech will move the market.

Oil is still trading below $100 after China imposed a new lockdown on about 37 million citizens. The markets are in a wait-and-see mode on this front.

All eyes will be on the Fed this afternoon as Powell is scheduled to begin his press conference at 2 p.m.

Markets rallied yesterday ahead of Powell’s speech and futures are up again this morning. I’ve said it before … the market loves Powell.

Technicals:

The SPY is in a short-term downtrend and it could break the trend this morning.

SPY 4-hour Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

Investors continue to bet against the rally as the put-to-call ratio is overextended on puts once again.

The VIX is retreating from the 30s this morning. It may have already broken its trend.

Signs of a bull rally are coming together.

Timing:

The past few FOMC meeting have been bullish. In the week or two that followed the SPY traded higher than before the meeting on a consistent basis.

There may be a dip-buying opportunity in the coming days. But I’m only going to take a gimme, no chasing.

St Patty’s day is tomorrow. And it’s typically green. In fact, the average gain for the SPY on 3/17 is +0.37%, making it the 7th most profitable day of the year on average.

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

^*SGLY has resistance at $8
HDSN has resistance at $6
VYGR key level at $6.50
AMPH has resistance at $35
IXHL is on watch
KALA is on watch
FLR has support at $28
NLSN is on watch

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