3/1/23 Fear is Gone, China Remerges


Markets opened green once again on Tuesday. But it was short-lived…

Buyers pushed the market higher into the afternoon but surrendered the gains with about 2 hours remaining in the trading session.

In the remaining two hours, the bears sold into every buyer they found.

By the close, the indexes were modestly lower and close to flat…

  • Dow Jones -0.7%
  • Nasdaq -0.1%
  • S&P 500 -0.3%
  • Russell 2000 +0.0%

Sector Round Up

4 or 11 sectors ended in the green. Although the loser’s losses were more dramatic than the winner’s wins.

At the top…

  • Material (XLB) +0.5%
  • Financials (XLF) +0.2%
  • Communications (XLC) +0.2%

At the bottom…

  • Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.8%
  • Energy (XLE) -1.4%
  • Utilities (XLU) -1.8%

Notably, risk-off sectors like XLU & XLP ended near the bottom, while a “risk-on” sector, XLC, finished near the top.

If the bears were indeed in charge, you expect to see the opposite. 

China Awakens

The Hang Seng Index, which tracks the Chinese market, is up more than 4% this morning.

Photo from Getty Images

According to government data, as reported by the Wall Street Journal…

  • “manufacturing rose at the fastest pace in more than a decade”
  • “export orders expanded for the first time in almost two years”

The data suggests China is emerging from its Covid surge after ditching the “zero-Covid” policy a few months back.


Despite the hesitation from the bulls, the fear needed for a major selloff isn’t in the market right now.

VIX Hourly Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The past two sessions have belonged to the bears. But the lack of fear in the market continues to suggest the selling will be short-lived.

Our outlook remains positive. We are bullish.

The other indicators…


Today is the first trading day of March.

  • Over the past 21 years, the average return for the S&P 500 is +1.1%
  • Historically its the 6th strongest month for the Dow Jones & S&P 500
  • It’s the 8th best for the Nasdaq & Russell 2000

Generally, we expect to see strengths in the beginning and into the middle of the month, while weakness is common after the Ides of March.

St Patrick’s Day, March 17th, is historically one of the best days of the year for bulls.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*AMAM support at $6
CING resistance at $1.80
*ADXN support at $2
RCEL on watch
SERA support at $3.60
TNK on watch
TMDX support at $70
RCON support at $1.80
NRDS support at $20
AAON support at $81
OPRA support at $8 & $9
KTB support at $50
VTNR support at $9
INDI support at $10

Secondary Watchlist, float 100+ million

XPRO support at $22
ACVA support at $12
SLQT support at $2, resistance at $2.60
ZETA support at $10.50
NEO support at $15
NGL on watch
RELY support at $14, resistance at $15
HIMS support at $10
NAT support at $4
BGCP support at $4.50

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