2/21/23 Oil Runs Dry, Fed Minutes Due


On Friday, the markets were coming off a bad inflation reading and heading into a long weekend. It was an incredible setup for the bears…

But after a red open, the selling stopped.

Buyers pushed the major indexes higher throughout the day … At the close, the indexes were mixed, which given the setup, was a win for the bulls.

  • Dow Jones +0.4%
  • Nasdaq -0.6%
  • S&P 500 -0.3%
  • Russell 2000 +0.2%

Beneath the surface, there was no clear winner. 

45% of stocks gained, while 51% declined.

Sector Round Up

The sectors leaned towards the bulls, 6 of 11 ended in the green.

At the top…

  • Consumer Staples (XLP) +1.3%
  • Utilities (XLU) +1.1%
  • Healthcare (XLV) +0.9%

At the bottom…

  • Energy (XLE) -3.6%
  • Technology (XLK) -1.3%
  • Materials (XLB) -0.9%

Oil Drops

The Energy sector was hit especially hard on Friday when a Saudi minister reiterated that the OPEC+ target output will remain unchanged throughout 2023.

Image from ECI Comfort
  • Sustained production is likely to keep oil & gas prices low
  • It also bodes well for inflation fears, as fuel price impact most goods and services


Despite the perfect storm set up on Friday, the VIX fell slightly during the trading session.

Every trend on the VIX chart is pointing lower—which favors the bulls…

VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

While we continue to question our bullish outlook, as of now, there is no ample reason to change.

We remain bullish.

Our other metrics….


The short week ahead is packed full of newsmakers…

  • FOMC minutes drop on Wednesday afternoon
  • Revised Q4 GDP numbers are due out Thursday premarket
  • The latest PCE inflation numbers are scheduled for release on Friday morning

And let’s not forget about earnings season. This week, retailers will shed light on their Q4 numbers. Notable names include…

  • Walmart (WMT) Premarket today
  • Home Depot (HD) premarket today
  • Coinbase (COIN) after the close today
  • TJ Maxx parent, TJX Companies (TJX) Wednesday premarket
  • Etsy (ETSY) Wednesday after hours
  • Wayfair (W) Thursday premarket
  • ContextLogic (WISH^) Thursday after hours


*Low Float
^Open Position

*RMTI support at $2.40
*ADXN support at $1.60
*LUNR on watch
BLBD on watch
GRIL support at $1.10
SERA resistance at $3
DPRO support at $2
FUSN support at $4
AN support at $140
CAR support at $240
NRDS support at $14
QNST support at $16, resistance at $18
ZGN support at $13
VKTX support at $11
INDI on watch
^AI support at $22

Secondary watchlist … float over 100 million:

TDC on watch
MDXG support at $4.20, resistance at $4.75
FSLY on watch
MGNI support at $13
NGL support at $2.60
SONO support at $20
CYH on watch
RBBN support at $4
NYT support at $40
MIR support at $8.50
DKNG support at $20
^PLTR support at $9

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *