2/15/23 Never Believe the First Move


The CPI report dropped at 8:30 on Tuesday morning. And on this Valentine’s Day, it got no love.

The report revealed that inflation is trending lower but not falling. Prices increased…

  • +0.5% Month-over-month, led by the cost of shelter
  • +6.4% Year-over-year, down from +6.5% last month
Chart from U.S. Dept of Labor

After the news broke, volatility gripped the market. At lunchtime, major indexes were down 1% or more.

But as afternoon trading began, the market began a slow and steady rise. Volatility vanished, and the markets closed mixed, near flat.

  • Dow Jones -0.5%
  • Nasdaq +0.6%
  • S&P 500 -0.0%
  • Russell 2000 -0.1%

Sector Round Up

It was a mixed bag when looking at the sectors. 5 of 11 ended the day higher.

The risk-on sectors were all green.

Image by TheStreet.com

At the top…

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +1.2%
  • Technology (XLK) +0.4%
  • Materials (XLB) +0.2%
  • Communications (XLC) +0.0%

At the bottom…

  • Real Estate (XLRE) -1.0%
  • Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.9%
  • Healthcare (XLV) -0.6%


This morning we are more confident in our bullish outlook primarily due to the lack of fear in the market.

The VIX plummeted during Tuesday’s trading…

VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

Bears can’t successfully attack without fear. And the bulls are clearly showing they’re ready to defend the established price.

Our other indicators suggest the market is free to move in the path of least resistance…


The busy week isn’t slowing down…

  • Earnings continue to pour in 
  • The PPI report drops Thursday morning
  • Friday is options expiration and the final day of trading before the long weekend.

A strong end to this week could put the bears into hibernation for the year.

New positions noted below…


*Low Float
^Open Position

*XPON support at $4
*RMTI support at $2.20, resistance at $2.50
^*BBAI support at $4
*IVDA support at $2.20
BLBD on watch
FUSN support at $4
CAR support at $240
BSGM support at $1.20
QNST support at $16
CBAY support at $8
CDTX support at $1.60
VKTX support at $10, resistance at $11
OCUL on watch
INDI support at $9
^AI support at $22
TDC support at $40
NCL on watch
SONO support at $20
NYT support at $38
MIR support at $8.20
KD support at $16
^PLTR support at $9

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