2/13/23 Earnings & Inflation, The Week Ahead


Friday was a mixed bag on Wall Street… 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq traded in the red the entire day.

The Dow traded in the green nearly the entire day.

The S&P 500, arguably the most important index to watch, opened red, swung to green, and continued that pattern through the day.

Charts from Finviz

In the end, the bulls managed a small victory, with 3 of 4 major indexes higher ahead of the weekend.

  • Dow Jones +0.5%
  • Nasdaq -0.6%
  • S&P 500 +0.2%
  • Russell 2000 +0.2%

A look under the surface revealed the victory was not decisive. 46% of stocks gained, while 51% declined.

Sector Round Up

The sectors leaned green favoring the bulls, 8 of 11 ended the day higher.

At the top…

  • Energy (XLE) +3.9%
  • Utilities (XLU) +2.0%
  • Consumer Staples (XLP) +0.9%

The losers…

  • Technology (XLK) -0.5%
  • Communications (XLC) -1.0%
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -1.2%

Outrage Oil

In response to sanctions from western governments, Russia announced it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March. That’s about a 5% reduction.

  • Crude climbed more than 2% in response
  • Oil-related stocks surged 
  • The energy sector was the bright spot in the market…
S&P 500 map from Finviz


Looking at the short-term trend, the S&P 500 is undoubtedly pointing higher.

But there’s still a ton of overhead resistance to get through…

SPY Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

Last week’s selling has brought the market to a testing ground for the bulls. If they fail to push the market higher this week, our bullish theory will be called into question.

Right now, we see no reason to alter our current outlook. Here’s what the indicators say…


It’s options expiration week, the second of 2023. 

February’s expiration week tilts towards the bulls. Since 2006 the average gain for the S&P 500 this week is +0.7%

But there’s a lot more going on before Friday’s expirations. Inflation data releases…

  • CPI on Tuesday premarket
  • PPI on Thursday premarket

Let’s not forget … We’re still in the middle of earnings season. Here’s what we’re watching this week…

  • Palantir (PLTR) after the close today
  • Devon Energy (DVN^) Tuesday after hours
  • Airbnb (ABNB) Tuesday after hours
  • Roblox (RBLX^) Wednesday premarket
  • Shopify (SHOP) Wednesday after hours
  • Draft Kings (DKNG) Thursday after hours


*Low Float
^Open Position

*CETX support at $12
*NAOV on watch
*BBAI support at $4
*LICN on watch
*IVDA support at $1.80, resistance at $2.20
BLBD on watch
BSGM support at $1.20
AVRO on watch
QNST support at $16
CBAY support at $8
CDTX support at $1.60
VKTX support at $10
^AI support at $22
^SOUN resistance at $4
NCG support at $1.80
SONO support at $20
NYT support at $38
SPPI support at $1
KD support at $14, resistance at $16

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