12/5/22 A Good Week Behind—Weakness Ahead


On Friday, markets tanked before the opening bell after the jobs report revealed 263,000 new jobs added v 200,000 expected.

The tighter labor market gives The Fed less reason to pull back on its aggressive rate hikes.

But as the day went on, the market decided that a tight labor market wasn’t the worst thing in the world…

By the closing bell, 52% of stocks advanced, and 43% declined. The indexes were practically flat…

  • Dow Jones +0.1%
  • Nasdaq -0.2%
  • S&P 500 -0.1%
  • Russell 2000 +0.6%

Remember Powell’s concerns last week… “monetary policy” can cause “uncertain lags.”

Image from Vaisala

Our take… 

The labor market has been tight for a while. The Fed is concerned about the uncertainty caused by rate hikes and isn’t focused exclusively on the labor market. 

On Friday, the market decided that the uncertainty the Fed faced was likely to outweigh the strength of the labor market.

At this point, a 0.5% rate hike is still priced in.

Sector Round Up

7 of 11 sectors ended the day green. But once again there are no moves greater than 1% in either direction…

At the top…

  • Real Estate (XLRE) +0.6%
  • Healthcare (XLV) +0.6%
  • Utilities (XLU) +0.6%

The exception at the bottom…

  • Technology (XLK) -0.6%
  • Communications (XLC) -0.6%


The S&P 500 is finding strong support above the 200-day moving average.

SPY Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

As the market tried to fall beneath the critical level on Friday, buyers almost instantly pushed back and closed the week with solid gains.

With no warning signs flashing, we’re maintaining our bullish outlook…


As we kick off the first full trading week of December, it’s important to remember that December usually opens with weakness and ends strong.

We’ll be looking to buy into dips near the middle to the end of next week.

This week there’s not a lot of scheduled news.

  • Our full list of news-making events can be found here.


*Low Float
^Open Position
*USEAsupport at $3
*ATAT support at $16
*BBW support at $22
*NINE support at $10
TITN on watch
BAND resistance at $24
PDSB support at $9
AVDL support at $9
WNC resistance at $26
RCUS support at $31
^MANU resistance at $23
FIVE on watch
GRWG support at $7
^CROX support at $100
^RYAM support at $7, resistance at $8
PRQR resistance at $1.40
BLUE support at $8
CPRX support at $16
YEXT support at $6
GEO support at $11
MNSO support at $11
RLX support at $2.50
TME on watch

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