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12/4/23 Bitcoin, Bulls, Buying

News:

On Friday, markets closed the week with more gains. 

After a red open, buyers showed up in droves to push the indexes into a positive close…

  • Dow Jones 0.8%
  • Nasdaq +0.6%
  • S&P 500 +0.6%
  • Russell 2000 +3.0%

Over the weekend, Bitcoin smashed through $40,000 to reach new 52-week highs.

At writing, 1 bitcoin costs $41,600.

Bitcoin Daily candles from BarChart

Our analysis, published in June 2022, nailed the bottom. 

Now, we’re looking for the next peak. We expect bitcoin to peak between $200,000 and $2.6 million in the next 13 months.

New all-time highs above $69,000 are projected for next month.

Sector Round Up

Each of the 11 sectors closed Friday’s session higher.

At the top…

  • Real Estate (XLRE) +2.1%
  • Industrials (XLI) +1.6%
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +1.4%

Risk-on stocks brought up the rear…

  • Technology (XLK) +0.2%
  • Communications (XLC) +0.2%

Technicals: 

The market is overbought.

The S&P 500 is near its highest RSI level of the year. And history tells us further upside is limited.

SPY Daily Candles – Chart from thinkorswim

Markets are overexdended. We’re officially on pullback watch.

Your latest readout…

Timing:

The first half of December is typically lackluster.

About mid-way through the month, buying usually picks up and rallies into the new year.

As it sits right now, we expect historical norms to hold true. We’re bullish across the board.

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

*DRCT support at $10, resistance at $12.50
*GYRE on watch
*SHOT support at $4, resistance at $5
HRTG support at $8
AAOI support at $16
HNST support at $2, resistance at $2.5
FL support at $28

Secondary watchlist—float about 100 million

BLUE support at $4
TALK support at $2
NMRK
support at $8
CLSK support at $7
^IOT support at $30
GPS on watch
AFRM on watch
LYFT support at $12
SID support at $3.20

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