11/4/22 It’s Friday! Let’s Talk Jobs, China & Congress


The market opened in the red on Thursday, and stocks climbed slowly throughout the day. By afternoon the Dow and Russell 2000 were in positive territory, but in the final minutes of the trading session, sellers slammed the market lower.

Intraday charts showing the daily performance of the Dow & S&P 500
Charts from Finviz

All 4 indexes closed in the red…

  • Dow Jones -0.5%
  • Nasdaq -1.7%
  • S&P 500 -1.1%
  • Russell 2000 -0.5%

A deeper dive revealed clear winners and losers. 35% of stocks advanced, while 60% declined.

Sector Round Up

4 of 11 sectors ended Thursday in the green.

The top performers…

  • Energy (XLE) +1.9%
  • Industrials (XLI) +1.1%

At the bottom…

  • Technology (XLK) -2.9%
  • Communications (XLC) -2.5%
  • Financials (XLF) -1.0%

The remains sectors all closed within 1% of their previous close.

Rising in the East

This morning, Asia’s leading index, the Hang Seng, is set to post its first weekly gain in over two months. 

Photo of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Building
Hong Kong Stock Exchange Building, Photo by Visual China Group

At writing, the index is up 5.4% on the day. Two things are driving the gains…

  • Unconfirmed reports of relaxing Covid policies in China
  • An audit of U.S.-listed Chinese firms wrapped up early, according to a Bloomberg report.

Chinese stocks are looking good in premarket trading…

  • JD.com, Inc. (JD) +8.6%
  • Alibaba Group (BABA) +9.3%
  • NIO Inc. (NIO) +10.2%
  • XPeng Inc. (XPEV) +19.1%


After two days of heavy selling, the VIX should be rising, but it’s not.

The “fear gauge” generates a 30-day outlook of projected volatility.

VIX chart, 25 level market with historic interactions with the level highlighted.
VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The lower the VIX, the smaller the expected price swings.

The VIX is sending a clear signal … the market expects things to calm down pretty soon. And a calm market favors the bulls.

We remain cautiously bullish.

This morning…


This morning at 8:30, the latest jobs report will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • A tight labor market means The Fed can continue hiking rates without breaking the economy. But that hawkish stance could be bad for stocks.
  • We’re not expecting huge fireworks from the report, but we’ll have eyes on the market’s reaction.

It’s the final weekend before the midterm elections. Early voting is underway across the country. 

  • In Georgia, voter turnout is at record-high levels.
  • In Texas, turnout is lower.

If you are a U.S. citizen, we urge you to get out and cast your ballet.

The results of the elections are likely to reshape congress.

Election day is Tuesday, November 8th. Results will start rolling in that evening after polls close.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*HUDI on watch
*KLXE support at $15
*^RELL resistance at $24
*NINE support at $5, resistance at $6
SLS resistance at $4
ATNM on watch
CABA support at $2
ASC on watch
ETNB support at $9, resistance at $10
^IMVT support $11
NRDS support at $12/13
RNR support at $170
UTHR support at $245
SMCI support at $75
WNC resistance at $22
ELF support at $43
PCVX support at $42
HRMY support at $55 or $57
PARR support at $22, resistance at $24
RYAM support at $5.50
VIST resistance at $14
PRVB support at $8
OII support at $13.50
MCRB resistance at $9
ROL on watch
ELP resistance at $8
GILD resistance at $80

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