11/30/22 Your December Outlook—Inflation Data, Santa Rally, & More!


Tuesday was a mixed day for Wall Street.

The indexes that sank outweighed the ones that rose.

  • Dow Jones +0.0%
  • Nasdaq -0.6%
  • S&P 500 -0.2%
  • Russell 2000 +0.3%

There was little new information to decipher.

Under the surface, things look a little rosier…

  • 55% of stock advanced
  • 41% declined

Sector Round Up

6 of 11 sectors ended the day green.

Opposite the indexes, the winners outweighed the losers. At the top…

  • Real Estate (XLRE) +1.7%
  • Energy (XLE) 1.5%

At the bottom…

  • Technology (XLK) -1.0%
  • Utilities (XLU) -0.7%


If there’s fear in the market, it’s not showing.

The VIX barely budged intraday during the last two trading sessions. 

VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The critical level of 25 is still aways off. But the rising support is worth keeping an eye on. Right now, the VIX appears free to move sideways for some time.


December usually starts on a weak note. The selling is brought on by…

  • Institutional portfolio rebalance 
  • Individuals taking losses for tax purposes.

But December usually finishes strong.

  • Average returns for the big 4 indexes for the month range from +1.5% to +1.9%.
  • Midterm years since 1950 don’t fair quite as well … average returns range from -0.3% to +1.2%.
  • The midterm average was dragged down by 2018 when the S&P 500 fell 9.5%, triggered by the U.S./China trade war.

Here are the month’s notable newsmakers…

  • December 2 — Jobs report with the monthly unemployment figure
  • December 9 — PPI inflation data
  • December 13 — CPI inflation data
  • December 14 — FOMC meeting concludes—latest interest rate announced
  • December 16 — Final triple witching of 2022
  • December 23 — Santa Rally begins
  • December 26 — Christmas Day observed, markets closed

Keep reading this month, and we’ll update you on the January Effect (that starts in December), the Free Lunch trade, and everything you need to know about the Santa Rally.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*USEA support at $3
*NINE support at $8, resistance at $10
*UCL support at $3.50
PDSB resistance at $9, support at $8
SCPH support at $7
AXSM support at $70
PBYI support at $4
WNC support at $24, resistance at $26
^MANU on watch
^CROX support at $85, resistance at $100
^RYAM support at $7, resistance at $8
CPRX support at $16
GEO support at $10.50
ADMA support at $3
TME support at $6
GILD support at $84

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *