11/23/22 Retailers Surprise As Fed Minutes Set to Drop


On Tuesday, markets jumped higher at the open and climbed throughout the day.

All 4 indexes posted solid gains…

  • Dow Jones +1.2%
  • Nasdaq +1.4%
  • S&P 500 +1.4%
  • Russell 2000 +1.2%

The bullish day was driven by retail earnings. 

Photo by Kleomenis Spyroglou on Unsplash

Mall & strip mall staples surges after releasing their Q3 earnings.

  • Best Buy (BBY) +13%
  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) +21%
  • American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) +18%
  • Burlington Stores (BURL) +21%

But buyers didn’t stop with retail…

Sector Round Up

Each of the 11 sectors ended the day higher. 

Leading the charge…

  • Energy (XLE) +3.1%
  • Materials (XLB) +2.3%
  • Technology (XLK)+1.9%

Bring up the rear…

  • Real Estate (XLRE) +0.5%
  • Consumer Staples (XLP) +0.7%
  • Industrials (XLI) +0.8%

We’ve added Materials to our hot sector watch. The index XLB, closed at its highest level since early June. It has consistently been a top performer for several weeks now.

Photo by Christophe Dion on Unsplash

We opened a long position in Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM) near $7 to play off this trend.


The VIX smashed through another level of support. The case for an end-of-year bull run is growing.

VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The fear gauge reached its lowest level since the week of the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium (marked with a circle) back in August.

  • RSI levels, the Dow is overbought (again), and the rest are neutral
  • The Put-to-Call Ratio popped 34% and now sits oversold as bears quickly bet against the rally.

Overbought conditions in the Dow are not overly concerning. This market belongs to the bulls and the bears could squeeze the market higher.

While we’ve been looking for options trades this week we have yet to pull the trigger.


Today, minutes from the Fed’s last FOMC meeting drop at 2 pm.

The market will have two hours to digest the news before heading out for the holiday.

Markets will reopen on Friday for a short session.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*NINE support at $8
*UCL on watch
PDSB resistance at $9
SCPH resistance at $7
IMMR resistance at $7
DPRO on watch
PBYI support at $4
^IMVT support at $12.60
WNC support at $24, resistance at $26
^MANU resistance at $16
MGNX support at $6.50
^CROX support at $85
^RYAM support at $7
PRQR on watch
PRVB support at $8
ADMA support at $2.85
MMAT support at $2
TME resistance at $6
GILD support at $84

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