11/21/22 Your Short Thanksgiving Week Outlook


On Friday, the markets finished without much change… 

Image from Finviz

All 4 indexes posted modest gains…

  • Dow Jones +0.6%
  • Nasdaq +0.0%
  • S&P 500 +0.5%
  • Russell 2000 +0.6%

Sector Round Up

9 of 11 sectors ended the day higher. Leading the charge…

  • Utilities (XLU) +2.1%
  • Real Estate (XLRE) +1.3%
  • Healthcare (XLV) +1.2%

The losers…

  • Energy (XLE) -0.8%
  • Communications (XLC) -0.3%

Bitcoin’s Bulls

A Wall Street Journal report states, “a record high …13.5 million bitcoins, roughly 60% of the circulating supply, haven’t been moved in more than a year.”

Image from Bloomberg
  • While the institutions around crypto are imploding, the asset itself has remained resilient.
  • As Bitcoin’s whitepaper says, the system is designed to be peer-to-peer “without going through a financial institution.”
  • We remain bullish on bitcoin for the long term and continue to buy.
  • At writing, 1 bitcoin costs about $16,000


The market isn’t showing any signs of fear…

VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The VIX, as shown on the chart above, is holding below the key level of 25. As long as that remains true, we remain bullish on stocks short term.

We’re not seeing any alternate signal at the moment…


It’s a short week due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday. The market is closed on Thursday and will close early, at 1 pm, on Friday.

  • Normally we expect lower volume and lower volatility during Thanksgiving week.
  • Last year however market plummeted on the final trading day of the week as COVID’s Omicron variant emerged.

The holiday week has a bullish tendency. We will be looking to buy calls into any weakness and sell by the end of the month … Futures are lower this morning. 

There are a few earnings reports this week.

  • We’re not particularly excited about any. 
  • The “most anticipated” can be found here.

The most exciting news item of the week is the FOMC minutes that will be released at 2 pm on Wednesday. We could get clues about the Fed’s plans for its December meeting.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*NINE support at $10
PDSB resistance at $9
CABA resistance at $4
FDMT on watch
IMMR resistance at $7
NRXP support at $1
^IMVT support at $13
WNC support at $25
GLYC on watch
MGNX support at $6.50
^CROX support at $100
^RYAM support at $7
PRQR on watch
PRVB support at $8
IGT resistance at $25
ADMA support at $2.85
^ARDX support at $2
VVNT support at $9, resistance at $10
TME resistance at $6
GILD resistance at $84

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