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10/6/23 The Setup is Pretty

News:

On Thursday, markets opened near flat and closed near flat.

Most of the session was spent in the red, but markets closed well off their lows.

These are what long “bottom-shadow” candles like close up…

Charts from Finviz

Investors oozed caution ahead of today’s jobs report. 

The indexes settled near their session highs but were still mostly red.

  • Dow Jones -0.0%
  • Nasdaq -0.1% 
  • S&P 500 -0.1%
  • Russell 2000 +0.1%

Sector Round Up

4 of the 11 sectors managed a green close on Thursday.. 

At the top…

  • Real Estate (XLRE) +0.7%
  • Healthcare (XLV) +0.6%
  • Financials (XLF) +0.5%

At the bottom…

  • Energy (XLE) -0.6%
  • Materials (XLB) -1.2%
  • Consumer Staples (XLP) -2.0%

Technicals: 

With markets, anything *CAN* happen. 

But history still tends to be a pretty good guide for what actually will happen…

The S&P 500, one of the best measures of the broader market, looks more and more like it’s ready to turn.

SPY Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

It’s consolidating at a key support level. And it’s coming off oversold conditions.

A setup this pretty is rare. 

We’re adding to our seasonal swing positions as all our signals suggest the bottom is in.

Your latest readout…

  • The VIX is holding below 20
  • RSI levels remain split…
    • The Dow and Russell 2000 are oversold
    • The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are neutral
  • The put-to-call ratio is back to regular oversold

Timing:

Today, all eyes will focus on the jobs report, which is due out at 8:30 this morning.

Watch the market’s reaction. And never trust the first move.

Watchlist:

*Low Float
^Open Position

*IMMX support at $3.75
*GRPN support at $14
^*GLBS on watch
LFMD support at $6
TNGX support at $11.50
MRTX support at $55

Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million

TAL support at $8.50

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