10/5/23 This Report is Best with a Grain of Salt


On Wednesday, weaker-than-expected jobs data from ADP gave the market reason to cheer.

Image from Inc Magazine

The market believes lower employment could force the Fed to hold or cut interest rates.

The indexes settle at their session highs and on a decisively positive note…

  • Dow Jones +0.4%
  • Nasdaq +1.4% 
  • S&P 500 +1.8%
  • Russell 2000 +0.1%

Our advice:

Take the ADP numbers with a grain of salt. Historically, they’re a terrible predictor of the government report due out Friday.

Sector Round Up

9 of the 11 sectors closed the day in the green. “Risk-on” sectors took the top two spots.

At the top…

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +2.0%
  • Technology (XLK) +1.3%
  • Materials (XLB) +1.2%

At the bottom…

  • Utilities (XLU) -0.1%
  • Energy (XLE) -3.1%

Energy stocks plunged as crude oil futures dropped more than 7.5% since the beginning of the month.


Investors still ain’t scared. 

The market’s top fear gauge is barely budging…

VIX Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

We reiterate yesterday’s message … Everything we see suggests this is the bottom. Or very close to it.

Your latest readout…

  • The VIX is holding below 20
  • RSI levels are split…
    • The Dow and Russell 2000 are oversold
    • The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are neutral
  • The put-to-call ratio is so oversold it’s stupid


We are one day away from the first major scheduled news release of the fourth quarter.

The Jobs Report drops tomorrow premarket. We’ll be watching the market’s reaction.

Until then … We’re buying dips.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*IMMX support at $3.75
*GRPN support at $14
*HRTG support at $6
^*GLBS on watch
LFMD support at $5.50
GIII support at $24, resistance at $25

Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million

TAL support at $8.50

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