10/30/23 Inflation In Check, Fed Meeting Ahead


On Friday, markets digested the latest PCE inflation numbers.

There were no major surprises in the report.

Chart from Jason Furman

Prices rose in line with previous months and expectations…

  • +0.3% month-over-month
  • +3.4% year-over-year

The indexes closed mixed but favored the bears

  • Dow Jones -1.2%
  • Nasdaq +0.4%
  • S&P 500 -0.5%
  • Russell 2000 -1.2%

The Nasdaq was propped up by Amazon (AMZN), which surged 7% after upbeat earnings.

Sector Round Up

Of the 11 sectors, only 2 ended Friday with gains.

The winners…

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +1.1%
  • Technology (XLK) +0.6%

At the bottom…

  • Financials (XLF) -1.8%
  • Utilities (XLU) -1.9%
  • Energy (CLE) -2.4%


The S&P 500 finished Friday at the bottom of a long-term support zone and extremely oversold.

SPY Daily Candles w/10-day RSI – Chart from thinkorswim

History tells us that these extremes can’t be maintained.

Markets are bouncing sharply in premarket trading. We expect the seasonal bottom to be in this week if it wasn’t already reached on Friday. 

Your latest readout…


Another busy week of earnings to end October and welcome November…

  • Pinterest (PINS) Monday after-hours
  • AMD (AMD) Tuesday after-hours
  • PayPal (PYPL) Wednesday after-hours
  • Palantir (PLTR^) Thursday per-market
  • Apple (AAPL) Thursday after-hours
  • Carvana (CVNA) Thursday after-hours

The latest interest rate from Washington is due out this week also. The FOMC convenes on Tuesday and closes with a decision on Wednesday.


^Open Position

DECK support at $560
on watch
support at $11
SRRK support at $10
EPAC support at $28, resistance at $29
LOGI on watch

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