10/2/23 Your October Outlook


On Friday, markets opened on a positive note but trended lower throughout the day.

  • Concerns about the pending gov’t shutdown stole the headlines
Image from Hotels.com

The indexes settle mixed with a bearish tilt…

  • Dow Jones -0.5%
  • Nasdaq +0.2% 
  • S&P 500 -0.3
  • Russell 2000 -0.5%

Sector Round Up

Of the 11 sectors, only 4 closed Friday in the green.

At the top…

  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.5%
  • Real Estate (XLRE) +0.4%
  • Technology (XLK) +0.3%

At the bottom…

  • Healthcare (XLV) -0.8%
  • Financial (XLF) -0.9%
  • Energy (XLE) -2.0%

Still Open

Over the weekend, a dramatic late-night showdown kept the government open for at least the next 45 days.

Futures are higher but not dramatically so. The market deemed *this* shutdown inconsequential.


Signs of a turn are emerging. But the picture remains unclear.

The S&P 500 is holding above an important support level…

SPY Daily Candles – Chart by thinkorswim

Friday’s candle, while red, posted a higher low and a higher high.

We suspect a retest of the marked area is due. But the markets offer no guarantee.

Your latest readout…


October is a month of fear that needs to be unmasked.

When investors think of October, the crash of 1929 & 1987 may come to mind.

  • Major declines during October also occurred in 1978, 1979, 1989, & 1997
  • The worst single day for the Dow was in October 2008, with a decline of 18%

But when you peel back the curtain a bit further, you’ll find October is a reliable bear killer—Since WWII, 12 bear markets have met their fate in October

October, statistically speaking…

  • Ranks 7 out of 12
  • Marks the beginning of the best six months

Here are the important dates to note in the month ahead:

  • 10/6 Jobs Report
  • 10/11 FOMC meeting minutes released
  • 10/12 CPI inflation data
  • 10/13 Q3 Earnings season’s kick-off. Big banks WFC, JPM, C report
  • 10/20 Options Expiration
  • 10/26 Q3 GDP Advance estimate
  • 10/27 PCE inflation report


*Low Float
^Open Position

*SLNO support at $25, resistance at $30
*FEMY on watch
*SHOT support at $1.40, resistance at $1.55
*GRPN support at $14
*HRTG support at $6
LFMD support at $5.50
GIII support at $24, resistance at $25
METC support at $10, resistance at $11
APLT support at $2.50, resistance at $2.80
BHVN resistance at $26
NN support at $5 / resistance at $5.50
TNGX support at $11
SCS support at $11

Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million

TAL support at $8

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