News:
On Friday, markets opened on a positive note but trended lower throughout the day.
- Concerns about the pending gov’t shutdown stole the headlines
The indexes settle mixed with a bearish tilt…
- Dow Jones -0.5%
- Nasdaq +0.2%
- S&P 500 -0.3
- Russell 2000 -0.5%
Sector Round Up
Of the 11 sectors, only 4 closed Friday in the green.
At the top…
- Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.5%
- Real Estate (XLRE) +0.4%
- Technology (XLK) +0.3%
At the bottom…
- Healthcare (XLV) -0.8%
- Financial (XLF) -0.9%
- Energy (XLE) -2.0%
Still Open
Over the weekend, a dramatic late-night showdown kept the government open for at least the next 45 days.
Futures are higher but not dramatically so. The market deemed *this* shutdown inconsequential.
Technicals:
Signs of a turn are emerging. But the picture remains unclear.
The S&P 500 is holding above an important support level…
Friday’s candle, while red, posted a higher low and a higher high.
We suspect a retest of the marked area is due. But the markets offer no guarantee.
Your latest readout…
- The VIX remains below 18
- RSI levels the Dow remains oversold … the rest are neutral
- The put-to-call ratio jumped back to oversold
Timing:
October is a month of fear that needs to be unmasked.
When investors think of October, the crash of 1929 & 1987 may come to mind.
- Major declines during October also occurred in 1978, 1979, 1989, & 1997
- The worst single day for the Dow was in October 2008, with a decline of 18%
But when you peel back the curtain a bit further, you’ll find October is a reliable bear killer—Since WWII, 12 bear markets have met their fate in October
October, statistically speaking…
- Ranks 7 out of 12
- Marks the beginning of the best six months
Here are the important dates to note in the month ahead:
- 10/6 Jobs Report
- 10/11 FOMC meeting minutes released
- 10/12 CPI inflation data
- 10/13 Q3 Earnings season’s kick-off. Big banks WFC, JPM, C report
- 10/20 Options Expiration
- 10/26 Q3 GDP Advance estimate
- 10/27 PCE inflation report
Watchlist:
*Low Float
^Open Position
*SLNO support at $25, resistance at $30
*FEMY on watch
*SHOT support at $1.40, resistance at $1.55
*GRPN support at $14
*HRTG support at $6
LFMD support at $5.50
GIII support at $24, resistance at $25
METC support at $10, resistance at $11
APLT support at $2.50, resistance at $2.80
BHVN resistance at $26
NN support at $5 / resistance at $5.50
TNGX support at $11
SCS support at $11
Secondary watchlist—float 100+ million
TAL support at $8