1/6/23 Not Enough Bad News


Weekly jobless claims had been on the rise, but yesterday, they dropped to pre-pandemic levels.

Image from Abobe

Typically a strong labor market favors a strong economy which favors a strong stock market. But right now all eyes are on The Fed.

The market believes for The Fed to pivot the labor market needs to show some weakness.

The positive news for workers was bad for the market. Stocks fell premarket, traded in the red all day, and closed at their lows posting significant losses…

  • Dow Jones -1.0%
  • Nasdaq -1.5%
  • S&P 500 -1.2%
  • Russell 2000 -1.1%

Sector Round Up

9 of the 11 sectors ended the day in the red

The winners…

  • Energy (XLE) +1.8%
  • Communications (XLC) +0.1%

The biggest losers…

  • Reale Estate (XLRE) -3.0%
  • Utilities (XLU) -2.2%

Notable Names

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY^) fell 30% on bankruptcy rumors

Image from the Batavian
  • The former “meme stock” reached a value near $6 billion in early 2021
  • At writing, it’s lost 97% of its peak value
  • The stock is trading at its lowest level in over 30 years

AMTD Digital (HKD) a Hong Kong-based software company jump 200% yesterday.

  • The stock debuted in July and exploded more than 21,000% in four days
  • There was no clear catalyst for either of the outsized moves
  • Yesterday’s gains added $3.7 billion in market cap 


The VIX, aka the fear gauges, isn’t showing any fear…

VIX Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The critical levels of 25 and 22.5 are getting rejected time and time again.

For the bears to get a stronghold on the market there needs to be more fear. Right now we’re not seeing it.

Our other signals

We are maintaining our bullish outlook.


This morning the latest Jobs Report drops at 8:30 AM.

  • This will likely jolt the market in some fashion
  • Watch for the market’s reaction, not the report itself
  • Remember: never trust the first move

Day 3 of 5 for the “Early Warning” is in the books. The S&P 500 is currently down 0.8% for this measure.


*Low Float
^Open Position

*TIRX support at $3
*KALA on watch
*TMBR support at $2
*EVER support at $13.50, resistance at $16
*NINE support at $12
PDSB support at $10
CABA support at $10
FREQ support at $3
COLL on watch
SMMT support at $4, resistance at $5.50
TERN support at $8
ORMP resistance at $12
EH support at $10
ORIC resistance at $6
FULC resistance at $9.5
^CROX support at $104
^PRQR support at $3
FGEN resistance at $18
HUYA support at $4.50
CPRX support at $18

Secondary watchlist, float 100+ million

NVRC on watch
support at $6
support at $10
QFIN support at $0
ARDX support at $2.50
BBWI support at $45
DADA support at $8
WDH support at $3, resistance at $3.35
IQ on watch

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