1/31/23 Tested, Your February Outlook


On Monday, markets slid lower ahead of the FOMC meeting, which convenes today.

The selling was controlled but widespread.

Each of the major indexes finished near their lows of the day.

  • Dow Jones -0.8%
  • Nasdaq -2.0%
  • S&P 500 -1.3%
  • Russell 2000 -1.3%

After leading the charge for several days, the Nasdaq dragged the market lower.

Photo by Tima Miroshnichenko from Pexels

The decline was likely driven, in part, by profit-taking after last week’s solid run-up.

Sector Round Up

10 of the 11 sectors ended the day lower.

The lone winner…

  • Consumer Staples (XLP) +0.1%

At the bottom…

  • Energy (XLE) -2.3%
  • Technology (XLK) -1.9%
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -1.7%


When resistance is broken, it becomes support. The strongest trends will test that support level before moving higher.

SPY Daily Candles – Chart via thinkorswim

The S&P 500 is testing its former resistance. We’re now waiting to see if indeed support holds.

No signal suggests we are heading lower…


Heading into its final day of trading, the January Barometer remains positive…

  • At writing, the S&P 500 is up 4.6% since January 1
  • Barring a massive sell-off, January will end in the green

Your February Outlook

As a whole, February is one of the lower-performing months. 

  • It ranks 11 of 12 for S&P 500 returns.
  • Pre-election years fare better. About two-thirds of the time, markets end the month higher.
  • Worth noting …. Trading around President’s Day tends to favor the bears

The news-making days to mark on your calendar…

  • Feb 1, FOMC meeting concludes, new interest rate announced
  • Feb 3, January jobs report
  • Feb 10, U Mich Consumer Sentiment survey
  • Feb 14, CPI inflation data drops on Valentine’s day
  • Feb 16, PPI inflation reading
  • Feb 20, President’s Day—Markets closed
  • Feb 22, FOMC minutes
  • Feb 23, Revised Q4 GDP numbers


*Low Float
^Open Position

*CUEN on watch
*APXC on watch
*BWEN support at $5, resistance at $6
SY support at $2.50
^AEHR support at $30
CABA resistance at $12
PTGX support at $12.50
TBBK support at $32
APLD support at $3
BZFD support at $2
CBAY support at $7
TOUR resistance at $2.50
SUMO support at $11
TGTX support at $14
AMLI support at $3.30
IQ resistance at $7
TUYA support at $2.75

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